![]() ![]() 44).īricker and Ibbitson dispute this approach. The UNPD predicts that the fertility rate of Country A will also decline from four to two over forty years (p. Country B then lowered its fertility rate from four to two in the space of forty years. Country B once had a fertility rate of six, and it also took thirty years to reduce its fertility rate to four. Let's say Country A has lowered its fertility rate from six to four over the space of thirty years. Simply put: the UNPD assumes the fertility rate in a given country or region will match other countries or regions that have had similar experiences but that are further down the road. In particular, the model is based on an assumption that future fertility declines will match past declines in their pacing here's their description of the UN calculation process: They believe that the UN model, respected though it may be, is flawed. Now, a new book, Empty Planet by Darrell Bricker and John Ibbitson, promises some good, or at least different news, as indicated in the book's subtitle, The Shock of Global Population Decline. ![]()
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